Foreign Policy Magazine June 3, 2009

http://experts.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/06/03/meat_the_slavery_of_our_time

How the coming vegetarian revolution will arrive by force

By Jim Motavalli

I have a prediction: Sooner than you might think, this will be a vegetarian
world. Future generations will find the idea of eating meat both morally
absurd and logistically impossible. Of course, one need only look at the
booming meat industry, the climbing rates of meat consumption in the
developing world, and the menu of just about any restaurant to call me
crazy. But already, most people know that eating red meat is bad for their
health and harmful for the planet. It's getting them to actually change
their diet that's the hard part -- and that's exactly why it won't happen by
choice.

Going by the numbers, eating meat is pretty hard to justify for the even
moderately health-conscious. A National Cancer Institute report released
last March found that people who ate the most red meat were, as the New York
Times put it, "most likely to die from cancer, heart disease and other
causes." The biggest abstainers "were least likely to die." Those who eat
five ounces of meat daily, (the equivalent of one and a half Quarter
Pounders or Big Macs) increase their risk from cancer or heart disease by 30
percent compared to those who eat two-thirds of an ounce daily -- a stark
difference.

The environmental impact is also crystal clear -- and similarly appalling.
"Livestock's Long Shadow," a 2006 report by the United Nations' Food and
Agriculture Organzation (FAO), found that livestock is a major player in
climate change, accounting for 18 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions
(measured in carbon dioxide equivalents), or more than the entire global
transportation system.

The obvious solution to both health and environmental disasters is to stop
eating meat altogether. But this is easier said than done. Even the studies
addressing the impact of meat on the planet downplay vegetarianism, as if
the authors are nervous to press it on people. Going veggie is not even
proposed as one of the FAO's "mitigation options" (which instead include
conservation tillage, organic farming, and better nutrition for livestock to
reduce methane gas production). Nor is it emphasized in "Happier Meals:
Rethinking the Global Meat Industry," a report by Danielle Nierenberg at the
Worldwatch Institute. The study's author is herself a vegan, but she told
me, "Food choices are a very personal decision for most people. We are only
now convincing them that this is a tool at their disposal if they care about
the environment."

She has a point: Giving up meat is tough, and arguing people into it is
probably a losing proposition. Even with all the statistics out there about
the dangers of meat, there are fewer vegetarians in the world than you'd
think. A Harris poll conducted in 2006 for the Vegetarian Resource Group
found that only 2.3 percent of American adults 18 or older claim never to
eat meat, fish, or fowl. A larger group, 6.7 percent, say they "never eat
meat," but often that means they only avoid the red kind. Worldwide, local
vegetarian societies report high participation in just a few places - for
example, 40 percent in India, 10 percent in Italy, 9 percent in Germany,
8.5. percent in Israel, and 6 percent in Britain.

So how will we become a vegetarian planet? The numbers suggest that we won't
stop eating meat simply because it's "the right thing to do." People love it
too much. Instead, we'll be forced to stop. By 2025, we simply won't have
the resources to keep up the habit. According to the FAO report, 33 percent
of the world's arable land is devoted to growing crops for animal feed, and
grazing is a major factor in deforestation around the world. It's also
incredibly water-intensive. The average U.S. diet requires twice the daily
amount of water as does an equally nutritious vegetarian diet, reports the
Worldwatch Institute. Meanwhile, there will be more than 8 billion people on
this earth, and two-thirds of the world's population will live in
water-stressed regions.

Sounds like a mess -- and one that doesn't bode well for our cattle
cravings. Meat will disappear -- except as a luxury available to few -- and
the ethical issues will evolve, too. In the way that slavery, once a broad
social norm, later became an unthinkable crime, we can expect to see a
similar shift once meat-eating disappears from our planet. Perhaps, some
day, the very idea of eating animal flesh will seem as remote as the idea of
owning humans does now. So if you're a carnivore, enjoy now -- before the
inevitable vegetarian revolution begins.